It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you want to avoid the really big losses like the plague. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Forrester Research, Inc. (NASDAQ:FORR); the share price is down a whopping 75% in the last three years. That would certainly shake our confidence in the decision to own the stock. And over the last year the share price fell 35%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
With the stock having lost 10% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
See our latest analysis for Forrester Research
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the three years that the share price declined, Forrester Research's earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
Forrester Research shareholders are down 35% for the year, but the market itself is up 23%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before spending more time on Forrester Research it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
We will like Forrester Research better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.