GXO Logistics, Inc.'s (NYSE:GXO) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, GXO Logistics' earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for GXO Logistics
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as GXO Logistics' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 42% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 16% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 32% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 11% per year, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
With this information, we can see why GXO Logistics is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that GXO Logistics maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with GXO Logistics (at least 1 which is concerning), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than GXO Logistics. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.