A week ago, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.1% to hit US$559m. Medpace Holdings also reported a statutory profit of US$3.67, which was an impressive 20% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, Medpace Holdings' twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$2.16b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 10% to US$12.53 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.30 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
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With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 7.8% to US$307, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Medpace Holdings at US$404 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$280. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Medpace Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Medpace Holdings.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Medpace Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Medpace Holdings' future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Medpace Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We also provide an overview of the Medpace Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.