To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This reveals that the company isn't compounding shareholder wealth because returns are falling and its net asset base is shrinking. Having said that, after a brief look, Polaris (NYSE:PII) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.
We've discovered 3 warning signs about Polaris. View them for free.Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Polaris:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.09 = US$291m ÷ (US$5.5b - US$2.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).
Thus, Polaris has an ROCE of 9.0%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Leisure industry average of 12%.
See our latest analysis for Polaris
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Polaris compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Polaris .
What Does the ROCE Trend For Polaris Tell Us?
In terms of Polaris' historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 17%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Polaris becoming one if things continue as they have.
On a side note, Polaris' current liabilities are still rather high at 42% of total assets. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.
The Bottom Line On Polaris' ROCE
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 40% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
One more thing: We've identified 3 warning signs with Polaris (at least 2 which are significant) , and understanding them would certainly be useful.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.